The economic calendar is heavy. In the battle of competing explanations for the market declines, the inflation story has taken center stage. With both PPI and CPI scheduled for release this week, I expect many to be asking: Will rising inflation spark another leg down for bonds and stocks?
Global equities roared out of the gate in January, notching their best start to a new year since 1994. The price of oil made an even larger jump than equities, reaching its highest price since 2014, while the U.S. dollar endured its largest monthly decline in nearly two years. Even though bond-market inflation expectations have risen to a three-year high, the Fed kept its overnight interest rate unchanged at its January meeting.
The economic calendar is normal, but some of the results might not be released on schedule. If the government remains shut down, economic news may take a back seat to the political maneuvering. While we don’t know how that will play out, we can expect an important stream of corporate earnings reports.
The economic calendar is normal, with a holiday-shortened week and some ongoing political worries. Competing with the Washington Circus will be Q417 corporate earnings reports. The former topics will have greater news interest, but investors should be digging into the earnings reports.
The economic calendar is about normal, with market participants back from holiday vacations (but perhaps fighting the snow). The key reports are the PPI and CPI. Inflation is the key 2018 worry for many, so these reports will get more attention. Especially if the numbers are a little hot, I expect the punditry to be asking: How worried should we be about inflation?
The economic calendar is a big one, compressed into a holiday-shortened week. There are no reports scheduled for Tuesday, and I have a suspicion that the A-Teams may be a bit slow in returning to work. With the big news coming at week’s end, and the need for fresh copy on Tuesday I expect the punditry to be asking: What should we worry about it 2018?
The economic calendar is light, the week is short, and the A-Teams are taking some time off. It is the formula for punditry gone wild. But what will be the subject, especially if Bitcoin is not moving much? I suspect questions of two types. The first will focus on the tax cuts, identifying the winning and losing stocks and sectors. The second will update the list of worries for 2018.
At 10 years and counting, the US credit cycle appears to be nearing an end. Could a sweeping rewrite of the tax code keep it alive a little longer? Maybe.
The economic calendar is loaded, especially with reports on housing. Despite this, the calendar and recent events will stimulate pundits to get out their crystal balls. I expect many to be asking: Can the rally in stocks find fresh legs in 2018?
The economic calendar is normal, but there are plenty of cross-currents from other major events. Bitcoin futures, the FOMC meeting, more debate on the tax legislation, the Alabama special Senate election, and an avalanche of 2018 forecasts.