Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 1K from Last Week, Beats Forecast
Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:
In the week ending July 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,500, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 218,000. [See full report]
This morning's seasonally adjusted 218K new claims, up 1K from the previous week's unrevised figure, was better than the Investing.com forecast of 220K.
Here is a close look at the data over the decade (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend in relation to the last recession.
As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.
The headline Unemployment Insurance data is seasonally adjusted. What does the non-seasonally adjusted data look like? See the chart below, which clearly shows the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data (the red dots). The 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change (note, for example, those regular January spikes).