Commentaries

Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms

Leave the Renminbi Out of US-China Trade Talks

A potential agreement could contain many “win-win” elements, notably concerning intellectual property rights and export subsidies. But pushing China to commit to a more stable exchange rate risks creating major problems when the next big Asian recession hits.

Germany, Startups, and Inflation

Wie Gehts mit Deutschland?; Jump-Starting U.S. Startups; Big Data Is Changing Inflation

Copper Well Positioned to Lead the Next Resource Cycle

Global copper capacity could be short some 41,000 tons by as early as 2021, says one commodities research firm. Meaning: We could be looking at another commodities super-cycle, with the red metal leading the way.

Time to Change Strategy

Friends don’t let friends buy and hold. At a minimum, you need some type of hedging program on your equity portfolios. Using a simple 200-day moving average to signal the time for going to cash, while not the best, will help protect you from the worst of a massive bear market.

Fed Evaluates Policy and Portfolio Strategy

A quiet and unsurprising FOMC statement belies the important policy discussions and decisions ongoing at the Fed.

Eurozone Debt Disputes Make an Unhappy Union

Once upon a time, bonds backed by a government’s full faith and credit pledge were generally considered less risky than corporate bonds. Times have changed. In today’s political climate, not all governments inspire us with the same confidence.

Emerging Market Stocks Underperform When the US Dollar Strengthens…Here’s Why

The relationship between the performance of emerging market stocks and the US dollar is one of the tightest macro relationships that exists in investing.

Five Key Ways Advisors Deliver Value in 2019

What is the value of a financial advisor in 2019? We break down the full value of an advisor’s services in this easy-to-follow equation.

Addicted to Oil?

Apart from the 2014-15 supply shock, oil prices have proven to be extremely elastic more recently with only modest changes to either supply or demand having an outsized impact on oil prices. We look into the implications of that and find that oil prices could possibly rise a fair bit further this year even if they are already up 40% year-to-date.

Growth Prospects and Challenges Ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan

The economic slowdown that began in late 2018 has started to stabilize. Trade tensions and policy uncertainty took a toll on confidence and financial markets late last year, but both seem less threatening today. Financial conditions have eased as major central banks maintain a fairly accommodative stance amid a subdued inflation outlook.

Monthly Market Commentary: April 2019

All of the “signals” we’ve been focusing on in the past several months remain solidly “in the green”. So why are we apprehensive? Perhaps we shouldn’t be, and simply are falling prey to our inner “Chicken Little” who always thinks the sky is falling. We’ve been guilty of that before.

1Q 19 Market Commentary

What a difference three months can make! Today, the bear has run back into its cave, the Fed has turned dovish, interest rates have plummeted, and stock markets have mostly recovered.

Quarterly Letter

What a difference three months make. For the full year 2018, every primary asset class was negative: the S&P 500 lost 4.6%, commodities were down 13.9%, long-dated US Treasury bonds were down 1.6%, and gold gave up 1.9%. Contrast that with the first quarter of 2019 – every one of those assets was up!

Indonesia's Election Outcome Removes Overhang for Equities

With Jokowi appearing set to retain power, equity flows should improve and indications are positive for economic reforms as political uncertainty is dispelled.

4 Transportation Sector Research Candidates: Do You Dare Have Your Money Travel With These Stocks?

As a rule, I have never been very fascinated by the Transportation Sector. This is especially true regarding airlines and air transport companies. Nevertheless, there are two airlines and two air freight carriers in the Transportation Sector that I felt comfortable featuring in this article.