The VIX Index Channel

Copper Well Positioned to Lead the Next Resource Cycle

Global copper capacity could be short some 41,000 tons by as early as 2021, says one commodities research firm. Meaning: We could be looking at another commodities super-cycle, with the red metal leading the way.

S&P 500 Snapshot: Just Off All Time High

The S&P 500 ended the week a fraction of a percent off the all-time high. The index spent most of the week around its last all-time high, began to fall on Wednesday, and bounced back on Friday. It is up 0.96% from yesterday, up 0.2% from last week, and up 17.50% YTD.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: April Nonfarm Employment

This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. April's 263K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 16K more jobs than previously reported. The consensus was for 181K new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 3.8%.

Light Vehicle Sales Per Capita: Our Latest Look at the Long-Term Trend

The moving average for the per-capita Light Vehicle Sales series peaked in 1986. Thirty-plus years later, it is now down 30.2% from that 1986 peak.

The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster

Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $16,627 for an annualized real return of 9.77%.

Monthly Market Commentary: April 2019

All of the “signals” we’ve been focusing on in the past several months remain solidly “in the green”. So why are we apprehensive? Perhaps we shouldn’t be, and simply are falling prey to our inner “Chicken Little” who always thinks the sky is falling. We’ve been guilty of that before.

Indonesia's Election Outcome Removes Overhang for Equities

With Jokowi appearing set to retain power, equity flows should improve and indications are positive for economic reforms as political uncertainty is dispelled.

Keeping Clients Buckled In: How to have Conversations about Investments

One of the greatest challenges for advisors is not just managing client assets but managing their emotions. Misperceptions and fears, exacerbated by a 24-hour news cycle predicated on the crisis of the moment, often stand between clients and long-term financial success.

Our “Compelling Wealth Management Conversations” program is designed to provide a historical perspective on market volatility and demonstrates, through anecdotes and illustrations, the values of sticking to a long-term investment plan, and delivered in three sections:

  • Key principles of sound investing
  • Historical context to debunk myths and misperceptions that keep investors on the sidelines
  • Current investment themes

This program strives to help clients understand the fundamental principles that may illuminate and guide investment decisions and highlight where we see opportunity today.

Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Valuation Indicator

With the latest April close data and Q1 GDP Advance Estimate, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 124.5%, up from 123.7% the previous quarter.

What ‘Back to the Future’ Can Teach Us About Portfolio Rebalancing

This article draws parallels between the blockbuster film ‘Back to the Future’ and portfolio rebalancing—underscoring the importance of timing when rebalancing, why it should be a greater consideration in the due diligence process and how it can influence portfolio performance over time.

Watch Out for Volatility, Even in Rising Markets

Global stocks rebounded in the first quarter, but the ride was rocky. Even in a rising market, volatility is a clear and present danger. With so many risks clouding the outlook, we believe that investors should focus on generating a smoother pattern of returns.

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Unchanged from Last Week

This morning's seasonally adjusted 230K new claims, unchanged from the previous week, was worse than the forecast of 220K.

Vehicle Miles Traveled: Another Look at Our Evolving Behavior

"Travel on all roads and streets changed by -0.4% (-0.8 billion vehicle miles) for February 2019 as compared with February 2018. Travel for the month is estimated to be 225.5 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was down 0.03% month-over-month and up 0.5% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) is down 0.09% month-over-month and down 0.1% year-over-year.

Weekly Headings

On the back of 1Q19 solid earnings results and healthy economic data releases, the S&P 500 continued its remarkable move higher this week and closed at a record high (2,933) for the first time since September 2018.

Is Your Portfolio Prepared for a Potential Wildfire?

In the decade since the global financial crisis, many investors have either actively steered—or ended up with—a large portion of their portfolios in investments tied to economic growth, namely stocks.