The Retirement Channel

Rebalance or Rush Hour?

Embracing a disciplined approach to rebalancing can lead to better long-term investment outcomes. Overcoming the natural tendency to wait-and-see before repositioning our portfolios can be a difficult, but worthy, goal for investors to pursue. Advisors can help investors surmount this and other behavioral hurdles by adopting a systematic rebalancing approach that effectively institutionalizes contrarian investment behavior.

June Jobs Report: 157K New Jobs, Unemployment Rate at 3.9%, Worse Than Forecast

This morning's employment report for July showed a 157K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was worse than forecasts. The unemployment rate decreased to 3.9%. The consensus was for 193K new jobs and the unemployment rate to drop to 3.9%.

The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster

Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $19,357 for an annualized real return of 13.28%.

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 1K from Last Week, Beats Forecast

This morning's seasonally adjusted 217K new claims, up 1K from the previous week's unrevised figure, was below the forecast of 220K

What Does It Take to Be in the Top 1 Percent? Not As Much As You Think

When you think of the top 1 percent of all income earners in American households, how much do you think this group rakes in? Millions? Tens of millions? What about the top 10 percent?

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income in June

Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in June rose 0.44% and is up 5.0% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was at 0.34%. The real number is up 2.7% year-over-year. Extensive revisions and updates were made.

Welcome, Immigrants. The U.S. Really Needs You

To achieve long-term prosperity, rational immigration policy must become a priority.

Real Disposable Income Per Capita in June

With the release of this morning's report on June Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.36% month-over-month change in disposable income was trimmed to 0.26% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.63% nominal and 2.35% real.

Can You Retire Your Retirement Risk?

Many (if not most) people think about retirement in terms of saving for the day they leave the workforce and won’t be collecting a paycheck any longer. The prospect of outliving one’s savings is therefore a top source of stress, along with being able to pay escalating health care costs.

The Unique Retirement Issues Facing Women

Women face at least 12 unique financial and life challenges related to long-term retirement planning. Addressing them can be overwhelming and uncomfortable. Only by understanding the issues can you develop strategies that will provide the greatest chance of achieving your clients’ goals.

Endgame Strategizing

Last week I gave you some rules to follow with your investments. They were necessarily general because I’m writing to a broad audience. Today, I will get more specific by discussing some possible strategies for high-net-worth “accredited investors.”

Summer Quarterly Commentary

Since we are necessarily in the predictions business, this letter offers our expectations for equity market returns. We admit our crystal ball is typically cloudy when it comes to what markets will do in the near term. While nothing is ever for certain, we can better view the potential for longer-term stock market returns from a couple of perspectives.

Staying Focused in the Age of “The Donald”

Geopolitics dominates the news these days, over-shadowing what remains a fundamentally solid global economy. As always, Donald Trump is at the center of most of the “noise”...

Late-Cycle Boost and Boom

Investors should stay guarded for exogenous shocks that could pull the next recession forward and cause markets to reprice credit risk.

Weighing the Week Ahead: A Delicate (and Temporary) Balance

Despite plenty of news, there was little market reaction. In a summer week including many vacations, we have a modest economic calendar but plenty of earnings news.