The Danger in Private Real Estate Investments
A question I’m often asked involves the merits of investing in private real estate as an alternative to publicly available REITs. To answer that question, I will turn to the historical evidence.
Moving Averages: July Month-End Update
Valid until the market close on August 31, 2018.
The S&P 500 closed June with a monthly gain of 3.60% after a small gain of 0.48% in June. All three S&P 500 MAs are signaling "invested" and three of five Ivy Portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard REIT Index (VNQ), and PowerShares DB Commodity Index (DBC) — are signaling "invested".
Fixing China’s Municipal Bond Market
The rapid growth of local government debt in China is a potential threat to the country’s financial stability. At the root of the debt problem is a severe fiscal imbalance that is driven by domestic politics.
Welcome, Immigrants. The U.S. Really Needs You
To achieve long-term prosperity, rational immigration policy must become a priority.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita in June
With the release of this morning's report on June Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.36% month-over-month change in disposable income was trimmed to 0.26% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.63% nominal and 2.35% real.
Home Prices Rise Remain Steady in May
With today's release of the May S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index were up 0.21% month over month. The seasonally adjusted national index year-over-year change has hovered between 4.2% and 6.7% for the last two-plus years. Today's S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (nominal) reached another new high.
2018 3Q Economic Capital Market Outlook
The domestic economy is functioning as well as any period since 2007, however we expect economic growth to slow next year. Measured by GDP, we expect the economy grew by a solid 4.0% in the second quarter and is growing at a rate of 2.7% with most sectors performing well.
Moving Averages: Month-End Preview
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month. At this point, before the close on the last day of the month, all three S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — unchanged from last month's triple "invested" signal. Three out of five Ivy Portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard REIT Index (VNQ), and PowerShares DB Commodity Index (DBC) — are signaling "invested", unchanged from last month's "signal.
Fascinating but Deadly
“Do you have the mental fortitude to accept huge gains?” is a line from The Elliott Wave Theorist’s Robert Prechter in an era gone by. But it is as true today as it was when first penned in the 1970s. And to do that, one has to ignore the ticker and hold stocks through a long market swing.
The Long Runway for Infrastructure Spending
Infrastructure is not a glamorous topic — it isn’t satirized on late-night TV, nor is it trending on social media. But the need for increased infrastructure investment is real across the globe. Given expected demographic trends, disruption by new technology and insufficient spending in the past, we at Invesco Real Estate believe infrastructure-related companies could be poised for decades of growth.
Pending Home Sales Increase Slightly in June
Today the National Association of Realtors released the June data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in all four major regions in June, but overall activity lagged year ago levels for the sixth straight month."
Preserve The Federal Reserve’s Independence
The Northern Trust Economics team tracks China’s fiscal policies and exchange rate volatility, and reacts to recent comments that undermine the Fed’s independence
Last week I gave you some rules to follow with your investments. They were necessarily general because I’m writing to a broad audience. Today, I will get more specific by discussing some possible strategies for high-net-worth “accredited investors.”
Home Ownership Rate: Up 0.9% YoY in Q2
Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of home ownership continues to struggle. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q2 2018. The seasonally adjusted rate for Q2 is 64.2 percent, unchanged from Q1. The nonseasonally adjusted Q2 number is 64.3 percent, up slightly from the Q4 64.2 percent figure.