The Real Estate Channel

How the Mighty Have Fallen

Although the FAANGs were the poster children of the fourth-quarter market rout, losses were broad-based across sectors and countries. These losses were strong reminders of how important it is to pay attention to a company’s stock price in addition to focusing on its fundamentals and long-term growth prospects.

Is Good News Bad or Good?

With unemployment below 4% (considered full employment by the Fed) and wage inflation pressure still positive, the Fed will want to continue to remove the stimulus from its policy. This means continuing to hike interest rates, albeit it at a reduced pace from the last two years.

NAHB Housing Market Index: "Lower Interest Rates Stabilize Builder Confidence"

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 58 is an increase of 2 from 56 last month. had a forecast of 57.

3 Ways to Protect Clients' Investments This Year

Stock market participants for most of the past few years have eschewed protection. It was all about making large amount of gains. Almost every advisor lost clients from “cocktail party” conversations about who had made the most money recently.

Understanding Market Cycles

I was digging through some old charts over the weekend and stumbled across this gem from AlphaTrends which explains the “best time to buy stocks.”

Will the Real Market Please Stand Up

The markets have not been kind to investors lately. There were precious few bright spots in the recent quarter, and it seems there was nowhere to hide, except cash. Our instincts, however, tell us that cash is not a long-term solution.

Stocks are Cheap(ish)

After December’s rout, are stocks now reasonably valued? Russ’ answer may surprise you.

Risks to the Global Economy in 2019

Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change. They will include a growth recession in China, a rise in global long-term real interest rates, and a crescendo of populist economic policies.

2019 Outlook - Party On or Party Over?

Free from a house view on economies, markets or stocks, J O Hambro CapitalManagement’s (JOHCM) fund managers invariably see the world in different ways. We asked a number of our managers for their thoughts on the outlook for their asset class next year, what they would like to see and the possible surprises that 2019 could bring.

A Silver Lining in Our Futures

Steuern! I always liked that word, it seems to exude a no nonsense seriousness. It’s a German verb meaning Control, or to be in control of, something that seems to have been singularly lacking in the markets these last few days.

NFIB Small Business Survey: "Small Business Optimism Virtually Unchanged..."

The headline number for December came in at 104.4, down 0.4 from the previous month. The index is at the 92nd percentile in this series. Today's number came in above the forecast of 103.6.

Liquidity: Factor investing's hidden gem

The liquidity factor is a hidden gem waiting to be mined. Target its precious premium.

Is the Fed Done Hiking Rates? Watch the Price of Gold

One of the possible implications of a less aggressive Fed in 2019 is a weaker dollar. And once the dollar starts to lose ground relative to other world currencies, the price of gold could rocket up to as much as $1,500 in the blink of an eye.

The Year of Living Dangerously

I expect to spend this year Living Dangerously. Yes, I’m thinking of the 1982 film starring a very youthful Mel Gibson and Sigourney Weaver, based on an earlier Christopher Koch novel. It has an Asian setting and features corrupt politics, neophyte journalists, international intrigue plus a gender-bending Chinese dwarf. If you aren’t sure how all those fit together, then welcome to 2019. We are all stuck in this craziness and can only make the best of it.

Q3 Household Net Worth: The "Real" Story

The latest Fed balance sheet shows a total net worth at an all-time high — 88.8% above the 2009 trough. The nominal Q3 net worth is up 1.9% from the previous quarter and up 8.2% year-over-year.