The Outlooks Channel

A Look Back at the Markets in February and Ahead to March 2019

From a financial markets perspective, last month was a good one. U.S. markets were up between 3 percent and 4 percent, developed international markets were up 2 percent to 3 percent, and even emerging markets managed to notch a small gain. Overall, February was another step forward from the decline at the end of last year, suggesting markets have regained their footing.

Is the Past Prologue or Is It Different This Time?

Quick review of what drove equity markets in Q4 2018, why it was all noise and then a discussion on where equity investors should focus their thinking as it relates to future equity market performance.

Outlook for 2019 — I can see clearly now...

Studies have shown over the years that most economic rate projections are terribly inaccurate with forecasts bunched together from crowd behavior. So what to do? Run multiple scenarios, assign probabilities and spit out the most likely base case at that point in time.

No Quarter: Could 1Q19 Bring Negative Earnings?

Although 4Q18 earnings season is capping a very strong calendar year for earnings; the outlook for 2019 is decidedly murkier, with 1Q19 already in negative territory.

A Mixed Economic Bag in 2019

Since the global synchronized growth of 2017, economic conditions have been gradually weakening and will produce an across-the-board deceleration in the months ahead. Beyond that, the prospect for markets and national economies will depend on a broad range of factors, some of which do not bode well.

Asset Allocation Views: Late Cycle vs. End Cycle Investing

Here are key takeaways from our 2019 Asset Allocation Outlook on how we are positioning asset allocation portfolios in light of our outlook for the global economy and markets.

A Look Back at the Markets in January and Ahead to February 2019

After a terrible fourth quarter in the financial markets, we had a sizable bounce in January. Markets were up significantly, both here in the U.S. and around the world, and sentiment seemed to change markedly from pessimism to a new optimism. The question going forward is whether things have really changed that much.

2019 Sector Teams’ Outlook: Governments and Currencies

Sector teams are a critical part of the investment process at Loomis Sayles. They bring together traders, analysts, strategists and portfolio managers, each with expertise in specific financial market sectors.

2019 – The Year of Volatility and a Year to Stay Active

This paper discusses Smith Capital Investor’s 2019 outlook, with an examination of the key themes they expect to drive markets. Among these are continued volatility, interest rates, the Fed, credit, credit and rate curves, CEO/CFO and board behaviors, political developments, and active vs. passive management in fixed income specifically.

With Canada’s Economy in Transition, the Neutral Rate is Key in 2019

We are skeptical Canada can shift its growth model, and our investment outlook for Canada is cautious as a result.

Winter Quarterly Commentary

We would like to ring in the new year and provide our predictions for the U.S. economy in 2019.

Market Outlook Q1 2019

FIS Group, a manager of U.S. and global developed, emerging and frontier market equity portfolio strategies, issued its Q1 2019 Market Outlook, which provides a review of a tumultuous market in 2018 and offers predictions for what is to come in the year ahead.

Policy Evolution in 2019: The Ability to Invest Again

Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that an evolving policy stance at the Fed is altering the risk/reward calculus for investors this year, although left-tail risks remain.

January 2019 Outlook

A 1997 dark comedy starring Dustin Hoffman and Robert DeNiro, “Wag the Dog” was a film in which a Hollywood director and a spin-doctor collude to fabricate a war in order to distract voters from a presidential sex-scandal. Hilarity ensues. Of course, the irony was that the movie was released just two months before an actual sex-scandal erupted.

Global Economic Outlook - February 2019

Northern Trust’s Economic Research team shares its monthly perspective on the growth prospects and challenges ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan.