The Municipal Bonds Channel

How Should The Fed React To Tax Reform?

Test of Northern Trust

A Wall Street Walk Through Time

Robert Penn Warren (April 1905 – September 1989) was an American poet, novelist, and literary critic who once said, “History cannot give us a program for the future, but it can give us a fuller understanding of ourselves, and of our common humanity, so that we can better face the future.”

On My Radar: Trade Signals Remain Risk On

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your wonderful family. Today’s post is holiday short because by the time it hits your in box I’ll hopefully be home with IPA in hand celebrating a hard-fought Black Friday golf tournament victory. Daughter, Brianna; son, Matthew and good friend, Stevie Oh, rounds out our foursome. If you are familiar with golf, it’s a scramble format where each player tees off.

From Reflation to Inflation

The U.S. economy is shifting from reflation to inflation – and we have greater confidence in inflation returning to its medium-term trend and the Federal Reserve’s target. Better wage growth and potential fiscal stimulus should cement this transition.

Battle Emerging-Market Downside by Going Multiple

Emerging markets offer investors plenty of opportunity, but managing downside risk effectively is critical. A flexible framework that integrates multiple asset classes can help.

The Federal Reserve versus Moore’s Law

How technology slows inflation across the economy.

The Bonfire Burns On

The volume of daily economic lunacy that lights up my various devices is truly stunning, and it seems to be increasing. I shared a little of it with you in last week’s “Bonfire of the Absurdities.” Since it’s a holiday weekend and I was traveling all week, today I’ll just give you a few more absurdities to ponder. And this shorter letter will lighten your weekend reading load.

Gobble, Gobble: Thanksgiving Dinners Stuffed with Savings Despite Rising Fuel Costs

A helpful way to look at inflation is the changing cost of a typical Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people. For the second straight year, the cost actually declined from the previous year’s holiday, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). This year’s feast, including staples such as turkey, rolls, sweet potatoes and more, fell $0.75 to a five-year low of $49.12. On an inflation-adjusted basis, that’s down more than $10 from 30 years ago. The turkey alone cost about 1.6 percent less than last year.

Where Might Credit Risks Exist? Follow the Supply

In 2017, corporate credit, including high yield, saw a resurgence in interest within a longer-term trend of increasing supply. In recent weeks, however, it has shown some cracks.

Striving for a Better World

Giving Day, the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, is fast approaching and with it the year-end charitable-giving season kicks off in earnest. In light of that, here is the response to one of the most common refrains we hear as we work with clients to structure their giving programs: “How can I ensure that my gifts truly make an impact?”

Chinese Corporate Credit: Five Themes for 2018

Growth in China’s offshore corporate bond market seems likely to continue in 2018, driven by the financing needs of investment grade state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private sector...

Merrill Memo

Charles Merrill issued the aforementioned memo to clients on March 31, 1928. At the end of the first quarter in 1928 the D-J Industrial Average was around 240. It subsequently rose to a September 3, 1929 peak of 381.17, which was the price peak for the Industrials that would not be surpassed until 1954, not that we are predicting anything like that here.

What’s on Congress’s Table? The Dish on the Tax Bills

Congressional Republican leaders are hungry for tax reform. The House bill passed. The Senate bill is under debate. But the two versions must be reconciled before final legislation lands on the president’s desk. It’s a lot to digest. Thankfully, we’ve compared the bills and assessed their likely effects on the municipal market.

Jeremy Siegel: The S&P 500 is Fairly Valued

The bull market in U.S. equities is behind us, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel, who says that the S&P 500 is now “fairly priced.”

Six Themes That Will Drive the Next Five Years

Those looking for an optimistic forecast for U.S. equities can turn to Northern Trust. Bob Browne, its chief investment officer, identified six themes that will drive the capital markets over the next five years. Taken together, they translate to 5.9% annual returns for U.S. stocks over that period, which includes 2017.