This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 147.8, down 0.6 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 2.61%, down from 2.80% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 0.8, also down from the previous week.

Geopolitics dominates the news these days, over-shadowing what remains a fundamentally solid global economy. As always, Donald Trump is at the center of most of the “noise”...

"Travel on all roads and streets changed by 0.8% (2.2 billion vehicle miles) for May 2018 as compared with May 2017. Travel for the month is estimated to be 286.2 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was up 0.07% month-over-month and up 0.7% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) is unchanged month-over-month and down 0.4% year-over-year.

Readers of these missives know that we have been favorable on the midstream Master Limited Partnership (MLP) space for a number of months. The reasons for that strategy have often been mentioned in these letters. First, the midstream MLPs sold off when the upstream MLPs blew up with most of them going bankrupt.

We answer some of today’s most pressing investor questions—from the effect of trade wars with China to our expectations for rising rates and a correction in high yield.

We think the US economy remains in good shape, with the rate of growth potentially picking up, a labor market that is tight but attracting new workers, and inflation that still seems relatively subdued. Boosted by tax cuts and spending increases, these favorable conditions could continue for some time.

Investors should stay guarded for exogenous shocks that could pull the next recession forward and cause markets to reprice credit risk.

Despite plenty of news, there was little market reaction. In a summer week including many vacations, we have a modest economic calendar but plenty of earnings news.

C. Thomas Howard, PhD, is the CEO and chief investment officer at AthenaInvest, Inc., a Colorado-based investment manager. He is the co-manager of the Athena Global Tactical ETFs, a separately managed account. As of June 30, 2018, since its inception in September 2010, it has had an annualized return of 19.0%, outperforming its benchmark, the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) by 900 basis points. It is rated five-stars by Morningstar.

With stints at firms such as Hightower and United Capital, Todd Eklund has worked with some of the largest RIA firms. Having seen and observed some of what works and what doesn’t in the advisor space, I thought his perspective would be valuable to RIA firms considering outsourcing to a TAMP.

Anticipate before you participate in the market. This is a classic piece of advice I like to give investors and have written about extensively in my CEO blog, Frank Talk. Financial markets are influenced by relatively predictable cycles and trading patterns, and by better understanding these we are able to react thoughtfully to headline noise or unexpected market developments.

In the second quarter volatility waned and performance decoupled as divergent backdrops created variances in returns for assets classes and markets across the globe. The winning trades for the second quarter were in the U.S. energy sector, U.S. small companies, and a select group of technology and consumer discretionary stocks.

There are a number of changes taking place in the investment environment and they are likely to have an influence on the returns on financial assets for some time to come. When the world’s leading economy, with more than a fifth of global GDP, does not participate in major alliances dealing with matters of security and the environment, this has longer-term investment implications.

The conventional wisdom is that risk-adjusted, overall portfolio returns are enhanced by combining exposure to a U.S. small-cap equity benchmark, like the Russell 2000 Index, with large-cap stocks. However, we find this belief is simply not supported by the data.

I have been very successful establishing high-value relationships and keeping clients happy. But lately our management has been focused on new sales. How can we strike an appropriate balance between driving new revenue and maintaining our existing relationships?

Crowded trade risks, while often unappreciated by investors, can be real and significant. They can be viewed as a byproduct of the immense proliferation of index and index-like products. While these products meet important investor needs, their predominance has led to market conditions that can greatly intensify selloffs-and could expose equity managers to greater than expected losses in the event of a market downturn.

Invesco Fixed Income is positive on fundamentals for the rest of this year. Global growth is solid and inflation is tame. As central banks have pivoted away from stimulus, tighter financial conditions have hurt risky assets. But major central bank policies are still generally easy — we expect the Federal Reserve to tighten gradually, and the runway for other central banks to normalize policy is still long.

Jobs, Branson, Buffett – it is rare for somebody to embody strengths of each of these business giants. Masayoshi Son, the Korean-Japanese, University of California, Berkeley-educated founder of one of Japan’s most successful companies, SoftBank Group, is a candidate.

There’s going to be a train wreck here. Which train will go off which track is unclear, but something will. And we’re all going to feel it.

How a fund defines its universe of small stocks eligible for purchase will make a significant difference in performance.

A bond allocation is like a railroad. Credit is the locomotive that generates high returns, duration the track that keeps the train in line. Take the track away and you risk running your portfolio into the ditch. That’s why duration-hedged credit strategies are dangerous.

In this issue, Research Affiliates discusses positioning for a potential inflation shock and offers insight into its collaboration with PIMCO to bring forth innovative solutions for investors.

Alternative investments (alts) were first embraced by institutions, and some people still view them as a complex solution for complex needs. However, a growing number of alternative strategies are now available via mutual funds.

It’s not just smaller advisor firms with limited marketing resources that can use podcasting to deliver their messaging to affluent prospects and clients. Big firms can easily leverage the potential of podcasts. I recently started a modestly successful podcast, so here are my suggestions for those who are thinking of doing the same.

The Northern Trust Economics team addresses a variety of questions heard most often from our audiences.

Investor sentiment on emerging markets has swung negative in recent weeks on concerns over tariffs, trade, global growth and a resurgent U.S. dollar. However, we believe the long-term case for emerging markets (EM) in bond portfolios is still strong -- especially if you know where to look.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, employment, inflation, and interest rates in the U.S., U.K., E.U., Japan and China.

The days are long and people’s thoughts naturally move to the mountains, lakes, and beaches. But these coming summer days may not be so “dog-like” as we normally anticipate.

Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.

Uncle Sam has made too many promises to too many people, with little regard for its future ability to fulfill them. These are debt. Worse, some of them are additional debt on top of the obligations we already see on the national balance sheet. Even worse, entire generations have planned their retirement lives around the government fulfilling those promises. If those promises aren’t met, their lifestyles will indeed become a potential train wreck.