How Should The Fed React To Tax Reform?
Test of Northern Trust
A Look at NYSE Margin Debt and the Market
Note: The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through October. The latest debt level is up 0.3% month-over-month. The October data gives us an additional sense of recent investor behavior.
Geopolitical Uncertainty and the Global Economy
Ben Bernanke and our panel of world-renowned advisors examine the outlook for global economic growth amid geopolitical shifts.
Consumer Fundamentals Are Strong
Now that Black Friday has come and gone and Cyber Monday is upon us, you're going to hear a blizzard of numbers and reports about the US consumer. So far, these numbers show blowout on-line sales and a mild decline in foot traffic at brick-and-mortar stores.
My Proposal to Help Female Advisors
In response to the parade of vile perpetrators of sexual misconduct, here’s a step that we can all take to help women. I’ve already taken it.
Cardinal Health: A Dividend Aristocrat the Risk Is Already Priced In-Part 2 of 7
As a value investor, I am totally cognizant of the reality that attractively valued bargains are hard to find in a strong bull market. Moreover, as an experienced value investor I clearly understand that low valuations in a raging bull market are usually associated with issues and challenges sometimes real, sometimes imaginary. The key to success is to identify when current problems are temporary, thereby creating long-term opportunity.
The Bonfire Burns On
The volume of daily economic lunacy that lights up my various devices is truly stunning, and it seems to be increasing. I shared a little of it with you in last week’s “Bonfire of the Absurdities.” Since it’s a holiday weekend and I was traveling all week, today I’ll just give you a few more absurdities to ponder. And this shorter letter will lighten your weekend reading load.
Gobble, Gobble: Thanksgiving Dinners Stuffed with Savings Despite Rising Fuel Costs
A helpful way to look at inflation is the changing cost of a typical Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people. For the second straight year, the cost actually declined from the previous year’s holiday, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). This year’s feast, including staples such as turkey, rolls, sweet potatoes and more, fell $0.75 to a five-year low of $49.12. On an inflation-adjusted basis, that’s down more than $10 from 30 years ago. The turkey alone cost about 1.6 percent less than last year.
Vehicle Miles Traveled: Another Look at Our Evolving Behavior
The Department of Transportation's Federal Highway Commission has released the latest report on Traffic Volume Trends, data through September. "Travel on all roads and streets changed by 0.3% (0.8 billion vehicle miles) for September 2017 as compared with September 2016. Travel for the month is estimated to be 262.5 billion vehicle miles." The less volatile 12-month moving average was up 0.12% month-over-month and 1.2% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) is up just 0.04% month-over-month and up only 0.6% year-over-year.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Black Friday Lead to a Green Market?
The economic calendar includes few reports, crammed into two days of a holiday-shortened week. Many will be taking time off – including some of the “A List” pundits. I expect to see some new faces on financial television and a lot of discussion about consumers and the economy. Many will be asking: What does Black Friday mean for the economy, and for stocks?
Jeremy Siegel: The S&P 500 is Fairly Valued
The bull market in U.S. equities is behind us, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel, who says that the S&P 500 is now “fairly priced.”
Do market-cap differences translate into performance variations?
How the major indexes approach the markets.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI at 5.5% YoY
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 145.6, down 0.1 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 5.52%, down from 5.53% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 2.7, down from the previous week.
The Fundamental Case for Japanese Stocks
We’ve been arguing for the last year that US-based investors would be well served to overweight foreign versus domestic equities. In this post we’ll dig into that topic a little deeper to try to convey a few of the company specific fundamental drivers of our foreign vs domestic call, especially as they relate to one of our favorite markets: Japan.