Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Valuation Indicator
With the latest April close data and Q1 GDP Advance Estimate, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 124.5%, up from 123.7% the previous quarter.
Moving Averages: April Month-End Update
Valid until the market close on May 31, 2019.
The S&P 500 closed April with a monthly gain of 3.93% after a gain of 1.79% in March. All three S&P 500 MAs are signaling "invested" and four of five Ivy Portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ETF (VEU), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF), and Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ) — are signaling "invested".
The Financial News Media Is Detrimental to Your Returns
Although innate biases lead to irrational investment decisions, external levers influence our investment behavior as well – none more so than the financial news media. When seeking information to help your odds of investment success, know the difference between entertainment and sound advice.
Fees and Gimmicks Are Squandering Your Investment Returns
Unfortunately, most investors still don’t know which actions will help their odds of investment success. There is just too much noise and nonsense that confuses, scares and nudges us into making the wrong decisions.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Why is the Market so Quiet?
The economic calendar is light so attention will again focus on Q1 earnings reports. Non-financial news will, no doubt, take center stage. The biggest market story seems to be the lack of action. That might be fine for you and for me, but not for the punditry.
Five Ways Active Managers Can Overcome Passive Resistance
The “flight to passive” continues, with passively managed funds gaining $695 billion in inflows in 2018, versus $85 billion in net outflows from actively managed funds, according to Morningstar.
Asia Credit Spreads Look Rewarding
We recently sat down with Matthews Asia Portfolio Managers Teresa Kong and Satya Patel to discuss the appeal of Asia corporate bonds for bond investors seeking global diversification.
Which Way the US Dollar Breaks Will Have Major Asset Allocation Implications in Second Half of 2019
The US dollar is on the cusp of making a major move. The question is which way will it go, higher or lower? The directional movement of the US dollar will have significant asset performance implications once the tug of war between dollar bears and bulls is resolved.
The Case for an Enhanced Passive Investing Category
The division between active and passive strategies has devolved into a two-legged stool. A stronger investment environment needs a clear third option: the enhanced passive category.
2019 Global Market Outlook Q2 Update: The Pause That Refreshes
Markets are caught between incoming data that point to slower global growth and forward-looking factors that suggest improvement later in the year. With the pause in U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes, we expect modest recovery in global cycle conditions.
You Are Here
Probably the most useful exercise we can do at present is to examine where the markets and the U.S. economy are in their respective cycles - with 19 charts and detailed analysis. There’s little question that the market is long into what Rhea described as the final phase of a bull market; “the period when speculation is rampant – a period when stocks are advanced on hopes and expectations.”
The Unforeseen Distribution of Stock Market Returns
Because so much of long-term returns occur over very brief periods, it’s critical that investors stay disciplined, adhering to their asset allocation plan and not paying attention to the noise of the market.
The Road Not Taken
Making money in the financial markets doesn't require elaborate schemes or technical ambidexterity. One simply has to be patient and ready to deploy appropriate disciplines to take advantage of any inevitable opportunity.
How Commonwealth’s Investment Research Team Can Make a Difference for You and Your Clients
Institutional-quality research for you and your clients. Guidance on investment management programs, equities, fixed income, and alternatives. A dedicated SRI/ESG resource. Direct access to our chief investment officer. That’s the value-add you get from Commonwealth Financial Network’s Investment Research team.