Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Corporate Earnings Results Change the Message of the Markets?
It is a light economic calendar without any of the most important reports. The government shutdown will command increasing attention as long as it continues. Finally, there is some real competition in financial news – the start of earnings season.
Emerging Markets Outpace Developed Markets in the Final Quarter of 2018
Numerous uncertainties weighed on investor sentiment in 2018 and led to a down year for emerging markets overall, although the fourth quarter saw some outperformance versus developed markets.
New Research on the Value of Global Diversification
Despite representing about one-eighth of global equity market capitalization, and despite the attractive valuations and growth prospects, the vast majority of U.S. investors have portfolios that dramatically underweight emerging market stocks. Here’s why that is a costly mistake.
Every Rose Has its Thorn: Healthy Rally, but Risks Linger
At a recent client event I was asked about our ongoing view that volatility would remain elevated—specifically, whether the rally off the December 2018 low in U.S. stocks was an indication that our view might be wrong.
US/China Trade Conflict Creates Factor Opportunities
Low Volatility and Quality offer potential benefits in stressed markets.
Understanding Market Cycles
I was digging through some old charts over the weekend and stumbled across this gem from AlphaTrends which explains the “best time to buy stocks.”
Brandes Quarterly Letter: What a Difference a Year Can Make
Brandes believes increased market volatility and valuation readjustments in the final quarter of 2018 mean a better outlook for a global value investing approach in 2019 and beyond.
The Hidden Advantage of Long/Short Portfolios
Today I’ll look at the conventional wisdom that the tax burden of an investment strategy increases with its turnover. In addition, I’ll discuss why short selling is perceived to be particularly tax inefficient.
Factor Timing: Sin Less Than a Little
There is perhaps no issue that is the subject of more debate in the factor investing community than factor timing. We are all trained to buy low and sell high, and it is tempting to conclude that we can do the same thing with factors. But in reality, it's not so simple.
Is the Fed Done Hiking Rates? Watch the Price of Gold
One of the possible implications of a less aggressive Fed in 2019 is a weaker dollar. And once the dollar starts to lose ground relative to other world currencies, the price of gold could rocket up to as much as $1,500 in the blink of an eye.
Keeping Calm in the Chaos
It can be difficult to remain calm in the midst of stock market action like we’ve seen over the past couple of months—but discipline is necessary during more tumultuous times. Although we do see rising risk of a recession, we don’t see a repeat of 2008 in the cards. Absent a recession—even if we enter a “formal” bear market (at its recent closing low, the S&P was down 19.8%)—additional weakness may be somewhat limited. Recession-related bears tend to be longer and grizzlier than non-recession bears. Until we get more clarity on the health of the economy, we continue to suggest investors remain defensive.
The Six New Clichés Advisors Should Never Use
Happy New Year everybody! If you’re using these six phrases, stop before they become 2019’s newest clichés.
Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Valuation Indicator
With the latest December close data and Q3 GDP Third Estimate, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 151.0%, up from 144.3% the previous quarter.
‘Tis the Season for Diversification
Equity markets send a timely reminder about diversifying into alternatives.
Moving Averages: December Month-End Update
Valid until the market close on January 31, 2019.
The S&P 500 closed December with a monthly loss of 9.18% after a small gain of 1.79% in November. All three S&P 500 MAs are signaling "cash" and four of five Ivy Portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ETF (VEU), Vanguard REIT Index (VNQ), and PowerShares DB Commodity Index (DBC) — are signaling "cash".