Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Valuation Indicator
With the latest July close data and Q2 GDP Advance Estimate, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 129.16%, down from 132.7% the previous quarter.
Moving Averages: July Month-End Update
Valid until the market close on August 31, 2018.
The S&P 500 closed June with a monthly gain of 3.60% after a small gain of 0.48% in June. All three S&P 500 MAs are signaling "invested" and three of five Ivy Portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard REIT Index (VNQ), and PowerShares DB Commodity Index (DBC) — are signaling "invested".
Dinner at Your Doorstep
Meal delivery services have been around for a long time. Most consumers have ordered pizza or Chinese food and had that food delivered.
July 2018 Economic Outlook
Fears of an imminent U.S. recession are premature; tax policy and a more business-friendly regulatory environment provide long-term catalysts for the economy. Although conditions outside the U.S. are less encouraging, positive global growth should continue, albeit with growing divergence among countries.
Weighing the Week Ahead: A Delicate (and Temporary) Balance
Despite plenty of news, there was little market reaction. In a summer week including many vacations, we have a modest economic calendar but plenty of earnings news.
Proven Tactical Allocation Strategy Driven by Behavioral Crowds
C. Thomas Howard, PhD, is the CEO and chief investment officer at AthenaInvest, Inc., a Colorado-based investment manager. He is the co-manager of the Athena Global Tactical ETFs, a separately managed account. As of June 30, 2018, since its inception in September 2010, it has had an annualized return of 19.0%, outperforming its benchmark, the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) by 900 basis points. It is rated five-stars by Morningstar.
How to Dodge the Debt Train
An active manager worth his or her salt will manage risk as part of the deal, and risk management is exactly what you need when you live on a railroad track. It doesn’t have to be perfect, just good enough to mitigate the major drawdowns. If everybody else loses 40% and you only lose 25%, you’ll be way ahead of the crowd. And the right manager should avoid even that scenario and keep you near break-even.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Anything Goes!
I cannot remember a market week with so many significant events. Important economic data and testimony by Fed Chairman Powell would be a big week. But we also have the Trump/Putin meeting, the start of an important earnings season, and the daily soap opera from Washington.
Why Factors Premiums Should Persist
We know the historical evidence shows there are premiums for factors, but how can you be confident that those premiums will persist after research about them is published and everyone knows about them? After all, we are all familiar with the phrase “past performance does not guarantee future results.” Here is my answer.
Q3 Market Outlook: What’s in Store for Markets in the Second Half?
We are coming to the mid-year point for 2018, and the past six months have felt like six years. Markets have experienced a significant uptick in volatility, yet equity investors may not have much to show for all their troubles.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Inflation on the Horizon?
The economic calendar is a light one, and many regular participants are on vacation. The most important data include PPI, CPI, and JOLTS, the best read on a tightening labor market.
Why Should Investors Consider Alternatives?
Alternative investments (alts) were first embraced by institutions, and some people still view them as a complex solution for complex needs. However, a growing number of alternative strategies are now available via mutual funds.
With trade war rhetoric growing hotter, Presidents Trump and Xi still have time to head to the negotiating table.
The Money Gods' Price For Achieving High Returns
When thinking about the last 20 years, investors easily recall the tech bubble, the financial crisis and the flash crash in 2010 that together form the most recent lost decade for equities. These negative events dominate our decision making. The (more important) 300% return from equities during this time does not.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is it Time to Worry About 2020?
The economic calendar is loaded with the most important reports. The four trading days are divided by a Wednesday holiday, meaning some extra days off for most. Normally the data would dominate the discussion.