Schwab Market Perspective: The Big Picture Heading into 2018
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Geopolitical Uncertainty and the Global Economy
Ben Bernanke and our panel of world-renowned advisors examine the outlook for global economic growth amid geopolitical shifts.
A massive amount of stock market capitalization is tied up in companies based on both their potential market share and hypothetical future profits. The popular arguments in their favor come from looking at a company’s total addressable market (TAM). Sky high price-to-earnings ratios and massive capitalizations are common in companies with a large TAM as we finish up 2017.
The Global Economy in 2018
The global economy will confront serious challenges in the months and years ahead, and looming in the background is a mountain of debt that makes markets nervous – and that thus increases the system's vulnerability to destabilizing shocks. Yet the baseline scenario seems to be one of continuity, with no obvious convulsions on the horizon.
A Wall Street Walk Through Time
Robert Penn Warren (April 1905 – September 1989) was an American poet, novelist, and literary critic who once said, “History cannot give us a program for the future, but it can give us a fuller understanding of ourselves, and of our common humanity, so that we can better face the future.”
How Technology Has Set Industries on a Journey of Opportunity
Technology is transforming nearly every industry, from healthcare to retail to transportation. Franklin Templeton Investments recently hosted an event examining the race to develop and market autonomous vehicles entitled, “Along for the Ride: Evaluating the Impacts of Self-Driving Cars.”
World Markets Update
All eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains for 2017 through November 27. The top performer thus far is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 34.93%, followed by India's BSE SENSEX at 26.81%. In third is Tokyo's Nikkei with 17.69%.
On My Radar: Trade Signals Remain Risk On
Happy Thanksgiving to you and your wonderful family. Today’s post is holiday short because by the time it hits your in box I’ll hopefully be home with IPA in hand celebrating a hard-fought Black Friday golf tournament victory. Daughter, Brianna; son, Matthew and good friend, Stevie Oh, rounds out our foursome. If you are familiar with golf, it’s a scramble format where each player tees off.
Taking Tally of the Global Rally
As we look ahead to 2018, it’s important to first recognize how significant 2017 has been for international markets. This is the eighth year of a global bull market, but prior to 2017, international markets had trailed the US for four consecutive years — and for six of the last seven years.
From Reflation to Inflation
The U.S. economy is shifting from reflation to inflation – and we have greater confidence in inflation returning to its medium-term trend and the Federal Reserve’s target. Better wage growth and potential fiscal stimulus should cement this transition.
Today’s Rational Exuberance
What many analysts still see as a temporary bubble, pumped up by artificial and unsustainable monetary stimulus, is maturing into a structural expansion of economic activity, profits, and employment that probably has many more years to run. There are at least four reasons for such optimism.
A Proposal to Reverse the Populist Tide
Why is income inequality important to economic growth? Economic justice concerns aside, if the bottom 80% are not generating sufficient income and are unable to spend, aggregate demand and economic growth will suffer.
Cardinal Health: A Dividend Aristocrat the Risk Is Already Priced In-Part 2 of 7
As a value investor, I am totally cognizant of the reality that attractively valued bargains are hard to find in a strong bull market. Moreover, as an experienced value investor I clearly understand that low valuations in a raging bull market are usually associated with issues and challenges sometimes real, sometimes imaginary. The key to success is to identify when current problems are temporary, thereby creating long-term opportunity.
The Federal Reserve versus Moore’s Law
How technology slows inflation across the economy.
The Bonfire Burns On
The volume of daily economic lunacy that lights up my various devices is truly stunning, and it seems to be increasing. I shared a little of it with you in last week’s “Bonfire of the Absurdities.” Since it’s a holiday weekend and I was traveling all week, today I’ll just give you a few more absurdities to ponder. And this shorter letter will lighten your weekend reading load.