High Yield Train Wreck
The first defaults will occur at the lowest end of the problematic market: high yield or “junk” bonds. They will play a role comparable to subprime mortgages in the last crisis. We’ll see mortgage problems as well, but I think overleveraged companies will be the core problem.
Equity-Sector Leadership Can Shift Amid Rising Interest Rates
In an environment in which interest rates have been steadily rising — the 10-year US Treasury yield has moved up almost 75 basis points since its recent low in September 2017 — one question that investors face is the potential effect of this phenomenon on equity sectors. Which sectors might be winners or losers in a rising rate environment?
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 11K from Last Week
This morning's seasonally adjusted 234K new claims, up 11K from the previous week's revised figure, was worse the Investing.com forecast of 220K. From the release: "The claims taking procedures in Puerto Rico and in the Virgin Islands have still not returned to normal."
Just One Thing
We have always liked the movie “City Slickers” and particularly one scene. It’s the scene where Curly (Jack Palance) turns to Mitch Robbins (Billy Crystal) and says, “Do you know the secret of life?” The punchline is, “It’s just one thing” (one thing). For investors we agree, all you need to know is just one thing.
Train Crash Preview
Today we will summarize something I’ve been thinking about for a long time. Exactly how will we get from the credit crisis, which I think is coming in the next 12–18 months, to what I call the Great Reset, when the global debt will be “rationalized” via some form of nonpayment. Whatever you want to call it, I think a worldwide debt default is likely in the next 10–12 years.
Blockchain Will Completely Revolutionize How We Mine Gold and Precious Metals
This week I had the pleasure to attend Consensus 2018 in New York, the premiere gathering for the who’s who in blockchain, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Attendance doubled from last year to an estimated 8,500 people, all of them packed in a Hilton built for only 3,000. Ticket sales alone pulled in a whopping $17 million, while event booths—the largest of which belonged to Microsoft and IBM—generated untold millions more.
Outlook May 2018
Market signals have been decidedly mixed thus far into the year. By this time a year ago, the S&P 500 had already returned 5%. Today, in early May, the S&P 500 is down fractionally, while volatility and bond yields are up.
Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Increases Continue in April
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for April increased to 109.4 from a revised 109.0 in March. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) came in at 103.5, up from the previous month.
A-Rod’s Financial Plan
Even the most avid baseball fan may not realize that A-Rod, who was one of the highest paid players in MLB history, says that committing to a financial plan from the onset enabled him to successfully make it from rags to riches.
To Crack into Prospects, Try Cracking Them Up
Humor is a lethal weapon. To connect better with your audience, refresh them, relieve tension in stressful situations and be more relatable and real to the people you want to impress, here are ways to infuse humor into your business, and some that you’re better off leaving out.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Which Stocks Benefit Most from Trump Policy Changes?
The economic calendar is normal, but there will be a lot of competing news – Korean talks, China negotiations, and the Trump legal team’s announcement about whether the President will meet with Special Counsel Mueller. And those are just the items we know about!
First Eagle: “Passive Investing Could Prove to be an Expensive Mistake”
First Eagle’s Global Fund (SGENX) is its flagship fund, with over $55 billion in assets. As of April 30, 2018, since inception (1/1/79), the Fund has returned 13.15% annually, versus 9.67% for the MSCI World Index. Over the last 15 years, it has been in the top 2% of its peer group. I spoke with its managers, Matthew B. McLennan and Kimball Brooker, Jr., on May 1.
My Conversation with Bitcoin Visionary Marco Streng
This week I had the opportunity to sit down with Marco Streng, the wunderkind bitcoin visionary behind Genesis Mining. Genesis, as many of you reading this might know, is the world’s largest cloud bitcoin mining company, with over 2 million customers worldwide. It calls Iceland home, whose cool climate and affordable green energy are ideal for mining newly minted virgin cryptocurrencies. Last year, Genesis helped connect the blockchain sector and traditional capital markets by partnering with HIVE Blockchain Technologies, the first publicly traded digital currency mining firm.
Oil Prices Likely to Rise With U.S. Withdrawal From Iran Nuclear Deal
The U.S. decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal has potentially profound implications for the oil market. While withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) creates many known unknowns, any reduction in Iranian supply will likely exacerbate market deficits, suggesting upward pressure on pricing.