How the Mighty Have Fallen
Although the FAANGs were the poster children of the fourth-quarter market rout, losses were broad-based across sectors and countries. These losses were strong reminders of how important it is to pay attention to a company’s stock price in addition to focusing on its fundamentals and long-term growth prospects.
International and Global Markets Commentary and Investment Outlook
Business uncertainty resulting from trade frictions will continue to put downward pressure on economic growth. As a result, investor confidence may remain fragile (recent price declines appear to reflect this). Concerns are unlikely to dissipate soon, but we contend that international growth stocks represent a good investment opportunity.
Emerging Markets Outpace Developed Markets in the Final Quarter of 2018
Numerous uncertainties weighed on investor sentiment in 2018 and led to a down year for emerging markets overall, although the fourth quarter saw some outperformance versus developed markets.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 3.57% YTD, Still In Correction Territory
The S&P 500 closed Friday down 0.01% from Thursday and up 2.54% from last Friday. The index is up 3.57% YTD, but still in correction territory.
Something Wicked This Way Comes
Americans like to think we are insulated from the world. We have big oceans on either side of us. Geopolitically, they serve as buffers. But economically they connect us to other important markets that are critical to many US businesses. Problems in those markets are ultimately problems for the US, too.
Our January 2019 Market Commentary: “Mixed Messages”
Investors received a lump of coal for Christmas…and a lot of mixed messages. This commentary explores the apparent contradictions, as well as reviews past bear markets.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update: "Colliding With the Economic Cycle – Again"
This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 143.4, up 2.1 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at -2.86%, down from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at -6.51, also down from the previous week.
A special invitation to attend the top investment and behavioral finance conference
We're very pleased to invite you to join us for Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit 2019 (February 19) and Finology Summit 2019 (February 20-21), in Sydney, Australia.
Crisis and Opportunity in Emerging Debt
Periodic bouts of volatility are a fact of life for emerging market investors, but for those who can ride out such periods of real or perceived crisis, dollar-denominated EM sovereign debt can offer compelling returns.
2019 Outlook - Party On or Party Over?
Free from a house view on economies, markets or stocks, J O Hambro CapitalManagement’s (JOHCM) fund managers invariably see the world in different ways. We asked a number of our managers for their thoughts on the outlook for their asset class next year, what they would like to see and the possible surprises that 2019 could bring.
A Silver Lining in Our Futures
Steuern! I always liked that word, it seems to exude a no nonsense seriousness. It’s a German verb meaning Control, or to be in control of, something that seems to have been singularly lacking in the markets these last few days.
Brandes Quarterly Letter: What a Difference a Year Can Make
Brandes believes increased market volatility and valuation readjustments in the final quarter of 2018 mean a better outlook for a global value investing approach in 2019 and beyond.
Is the Fed Done Hiking Rates? Watch the Price of Gold
One of the possible implications of a less aggressive Fed in 2019 is a weaker dollar. And once the dollar starts to lose ground relative to other world currencies, the price of gold could rocket up to as much as $1,500 in the blink of an eye.
Potential Pitholes of 2019
The January Absolute Return Letter is always about the pitholes one could fall into in the year to come and, lo and behold, financial markets are behaving as if we have already fallen into one. December was a most difficult month, and January hasn't exactly started with all guns blazing either.
The Ten Surprises of 2019
In September, this year looked like it was going to be one of the great years for the Ten Surprises. Oil was at $75 (West Texas Intermediate) and the S&P 500 was at 2,940. The Surprises had oil at $80 and the S&P at 3,000. The Ten Surprises are judged on whether they work out at some point during the year, not where they are at year-end.