The key to using active funds: Setting client expectations
Prepare clients for active fund volatility.
TESTING The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Testing round three
This update is in response to a standing request for real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite. Here are two overlays — one with the nominal price, excluding dividends, and the other with the price adjusted for inflation based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (which is usually just referred to as the CPI).
Are Factors Linked To Business Cycles?
There isn’t convincing evidence that a style-timing strategy, based on business cycles, can be expected to be profitable going forward.
The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $19,065for an annualized real return of 12.98%.
A Perspective on Secular Bull and Bear Markets
Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? At this point, nine years later, the S&P 500 has set a series of inflation-adjusted record highs based on monthly averages of daily closes. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance. An obvious feature of this inflation-adjusted series is the pattern of long-term alternations between up-and down-trends.
4 Big Reasons Why Short-Term Muni Bonds Should Excite You
Municipal bonds might not be the first thing that comes to mind when you think of a sexy investment. They don’t typically command news headlines like the stock market or bitcoin. That doesn’t mean investors should disregard short-term munis. In fact, munis play a very important role in any serious portfolio. Below are four big reasons why you should get excited about muni bonds.
World Markets Update
Two of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, March 5, 2018. The top performer this year is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 1.77%. In second is India's BSE Sensex with a gain of 0.69%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in third with a YTD loss of 0.11%.
Gregg Fisher – The Advantage of Multi-Factor Investing
Gregg S. Fisher founded Gerstein Fisher in 1993 based on a vision of offering a quantitative investment management approach grounded in sound economic theory and more efficiently implemented through technology. In this interview, he discusses the virtues of multi-factor investing and which factors are attractive in today’s market.
The Dishonest Claims about Healthcare
A recent paper from the World Economic Forum – the group that runs the Davos conference – stated that Americans pay more for healthcare than other countries but get inferior outcomes. That rhetoric was amplified by Warren Buffett, when he called health care costs a “hungry tapeworm” eating into the American economy. But, before you assume that Americans are not getting good value for their health care dollars, let’s look at the data.
Our Survey Results: The Asset Managers Advisors Recommend to Their Peers
We recently surveyed over 1,500 advisors to see which asset managers they are most likely to recommend to their peers. Here are the fund companies and ETF providers that came out on top in seven different categories.
Market Remains Overvalued
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
- The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio
- The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
- The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
- The relationship of the S&P Composite price to a regression trendline
Weekly Market Summary
The long term trend in US equities remains firmly higher. Expectations should be for equities to rise in the months ahead. The near term directional edge is more muted. Worldwide, equities are in the process of retesting their February lows. The US is being held up mostly by technology and financial stocks.
Why the Size Premium Won’t Disappear
There are logical explanations for why the size premium may have shrunk. But there also remain simple, intuitive, risk-based explanations for why the premium should persist.
3 questions you need to answer when choosing factor-based products
Key principles in your portfolio construction decisions.
Are Trump's Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Good for America?
President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff on imported steel and aluminum, at 25 percent and 10 percent, is much more than a shot across the bow. Indeed, this could be the official kickoff of the trade war we all anticipated. The protectionist trade policy, announced this week as the president met with metals executives, raised fresh inflation worries and had an immediate impact on capital markets.