The ETF Channel

Copper Well Positioned to Lead the Next Resource Cycle

Global copper capacity could be short some 41,000 tons by as early as 2021, says one commodities research firm. Meaning: We could be looking at another commodities super-cycle, with the red metal leading the way.

S&P 500 Snapshot: Just Off All Time High

The S&P 500 ended the week a fraction of a percent off the all-time high. The index spent most of the week around its last all-time high, began to fall on Wednesday, and bounced back on Friday. It is up 0.96% from yesterday, up 0.2% from last week, and up 17.50% YTD.

The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs

This update is in response to a standing request for real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite.

The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster

Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $16,627 for an annualized real return of 9.77%.

S&P 500 ETFs

The S&P 500 ETFs tracked include State Street Global Advisors’ SPDR (SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

Five Key Ways Advisors Deliver Value in 2019

What is the value of a financial advisor in 2019? We break down the full value of an advisor’s services in this easy-to-follow equation.

1Q 19 Market Commentary

What a difference three months can make! Today, the bear has run back into its cave, the Fed has turned dovish, interest rates have plummeted, and stock markets have mostly recovered.

Market Remains Overvalued

Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.

  • The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio
  • The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
  • The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
  • The relationship of the S&P Composite price to a regression trendline

Quarterly Letter

What a difference three months make. For the full year 2018, every primary asset class was negative: the S&P 500 lost 4.6%, commodities were down 13.9%, long-dated US Treasury bonds were down 1.6%, and gold gave up 1.9%. Contrast that with the first quarter of 2019 – every one of those assets was up!

The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: April Update

The Q Ratio is a popular method of estimating the fair value of the stock market developed by Nobel Laureate James Tobin. It's a fairly simple concept, but laborious to calculate. The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. This update includes the April close data.

What ‘Back to the Future’ Can Teach Us About Portfolio Rebalancing

This article draws parallels between the blockbuster film ‘Back to the Future’ and portfolio rebalancing—underscoring the importance of timing when rebalancing, why it should be a greater consideration in the due diligence process and how it can influence portfolio performance over time.

Regression to Trend: Another Look at Long-Term Market Performance

Quick take: At the end of April the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 114% above its long-term trend, up from 109% the previous month.

About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.

Crestmont Market Valuation Update: April 2019

Quick take: Based on the April S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 126% above its arithmetic mean and at the 99th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.

On My Radar: Investors are Willing to do Almost Everything; HY Price Trend Holds the Key

I attended an advisor summit in Chicago this past week. On stage was a good friend from S&P Dow Jones Indices. He referenced an article S&P published last fall about poor quality in the popular “leveraged loan” segment of the corporate bond market. Dull, I know, but hang in with me for a short few paragraphs, I promise this week’s missive gets better.

A Perspective on Secular Bull and Bear Markets

Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? At this point, ten years later, the S&P 500 has set a series of inflation-adjusted record highs based on monthly averages of daily closes.