Leave the Renminbi Out of US-China Trade Talks
A potential agreement could contain many “win-win” elements, notably concerning intellectual property rights and export subsidies. But pushing China to commit to a more stable exchange rate risks creating major problems when the next big Asian recession hits.
Copper Well Positioned to Lead the Next Resource Cycle
Global copper capacity could be short some 41,000 tons by as early as 2021, says one commodities research firm. Meaning: We could be looking at another commodities super-cycle, with the red metal leading the way.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: April Nonfarm Employment
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. April's 263K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 16K more jobs than previously reported. The Investing.com consensus was for 181K new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 3.8%.
Addicted to Oil?
Apart from the 2014-15 supply shock, oil prices have proven to be extremely elastic more recently with only modest changes to either supply or demand having an outsized impact on oil prices. We look into the implications of that and find that oil prices could possibly rise a fair bit further this year even if they are already up 40% year-to-date.
Growth Prospects and Challenges Ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan
The economic slowdown that began in late 2018 has started to stabilize. Trade tensions and policy uncertainty took a toll on confidence and financial markets late last year, but both seem less threatening today. Financial conditions have eased as major central banks maintain a fairly accommodative stance amid a subdued inflation outlook.
Monthly Market Commentary: April 2019
All of the “signals” we’ve been focusing on in the past several months remain solidly “in the green”. So why are we apprehensive? Perhaps we shouldn’t be, and simply are falling prey to our inner “Chicken Little” who always thinks the sky is falling. We’ve been guilty of that before.
What a difference three months make. For the full year 2018, every primary asset class was negative: the S&P 500 lost 4.6%, commodities were down 13.9%, long-dated US Treasury bonds were down 1.6%, and gold gave up 1.9%. Contrast that with the first quarter of 2019 – every one of those assets was up!
4 Transportation Sector Research Candidates: Do You Dare Have Your Money Travel With These Stocks?
As a rule, I have never been very fascinated by the Transportation Sector. This is especially true regarding airlines and air transport companies. Nevertheless, there are two airlines and two air freight carriers in the Transportation Sector that I felt comfortable featuring in this article.
Hard Truths in Resource Investing, According to Bob Moriarty
I’ve known Bob for many years, and if there’s one thing he’s proven about himself time and again is that he doesn’t mince words. Nor should he.
Watch Out for Volatility, Even in Rising Markets
Global stocks rebounded in the first quarter, but the ride was rocky. Even in a rising market, volatility is a clear and present danger. With so many risks clouding the outlook, we believe that investors should focus on generating a smoother pattern of returns.
Inflation Expectations vs. Probability of a 2019 Fed Rate Cut
Projections of Fed rate changes appear misaligned with inflation expectations and GDP growth.
Building Unlisted Infrastructure into Your Portfolio – Overcoming Four Key Obstacles.
Does exposure to unlisted infrastructure benefit the average portfolio?
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
The last couple of years have been remarkable ones for yields. The 10-year note hit its historic closing low of 1.37% in July of 2016 and then rose 114 BPs to 2.51% as of the April 30 close.
Moving Averages: April Month-End Update
Valid until the market close on May 31, 2019.
The S&P 500 closed April with a monthly gain of 3.93% after a gain of 1.79% in March. All three S&P 500 MAs are signaling "invested" and four of five Ivy Portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ETF (VEU), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF), and Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ) — are signaling "invested".