Baby Boomer Employment Across Time
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
Long-Term Trends in Employment by Age Group
The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution).
The Ratio of Part-Time Employed: December 2018
Let's take a closer look at Friday's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
NFIB Small Business Survey: "Small Business Optimism Virtually Unchanged..."
The headline number for December came in at 104.4, down 0.4 from the previous month. The index is at the 92nd percentile in this series. Today's number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 103.6.
2018 Employment Was The Second Best Since 2000
The data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth: employment, wages, consumption and manufacturing are all trending higher. But there is a very important exception: weakness in housing is apparent. If this persists and other measures, especially employment, start to also weaken, a recession in 2019 is possible.
C.I.a.P. Meets C.R.a.P.
Amazon recently announced that they are combing through the list of things they warehouse and sell to determine which items “can’t realize a profit” (C.R.a.P.).1 We found it very interesting how they are determining which items to pare from their website list.
Why Gundlach Is Still Wrong About Higher Rates
Last Monday, Jeff Gundlach, famed bond fund manager and CIO of Doubleline, made an interesting comment during an interview with CNBC when he stated that the 10-year Treasury yield would top 6% by 2020 or 2021. 6% would be the highest yield since 2000.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Home Price Increases Slow
With today's release of the October S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index were up 0.41% month over month.
Visualizing GDP: An Inside Look at the Q3 ThirdEstimate
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007. It uses a stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Global Markets: Three Themes to Watch in 2019
See what themes may impact global markets in the new year from Invesco Global Market Strategist Kristina Hooper and her team.
The Danger of Condescension
In my experience, some advisors are condescending when responding to questions from prospects. This tendency is more likely when a male advisor is speaking with a female prospect.
2019 Market Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy
U.S. economic growth was strong in 2018, but some of the forces behind that strength were either short-term or likely to fade going forward.
Weekly Market Summary
SPX had formed a topping pattern in August, and events since then have only strengthened this pattern. But there is little evidence of the underlying stress that is normally associated with big problems. This is not a market trying to efficiently discount next year's growth; it's a market mostly driven by fear and emotion.
An Educated Look At Student Debt
Senior Economist Ryan Boyle looks at how America accumulated so many student loans, and how best to deal with them going forward.