The Commodities Channel

Fed Will 'Wait & Watch' Before Raising Interest Rates

Fed Chair Jerome Powell used the “patient” word again last week. He also added new words that the Fed can “wait and watch” before raising rates again. And he added another new word, that whenever interest rate increases resume, they will be “gradual.” The stock markets loved it!

International and Global Markets Commentary and Investment Outlook

Business uncertainty resulting from trade frictions will continue to put downward pressure on economic growth. As a result, investor confidence may remain fragile (recent price declines appear to reflect this). Concerns are unlikely to dissipate soon, but we contend that international growth stocks represent a good investment opportunity.

Dr. Jekyll Economy Meets Mr. Hyde Markets

In the famous book, Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde were one human being with a split personality. Dr. Jekyll healed people and Mr. Hyde murdered them. This economic environment and the U.S. stock market have the same kind of split personality.

What’s Next for the Dollar, Gold, Stocks & Bonds?

The quip, “if you aren’t confused, you aren’t paying attention” needs to be replaced: “with the Fed confused, you better pay attention.” You may want to buckle up. Let me explain.

3 Ways to Protect Clients' Investments This Year

Stock market participants for most of the past few years have eschewed protection. It was all about making large amount of gains. Almost every advisor lost clients from “cocktail party” conversations about who had made the most money recently.

Emerging Markets Outpace Developed Markets in the Final Quarter of 2018

Numerous uncertainties weighed on investor sentiment in 2018 and led to a down year for emerging markets overall, although the fourth quarter saw some outperformance versus developed markets.

Weekly Gasoline Price Update: Regular and Premium Mostly Unchanged

The price of Regular and Premium are mostly unchanged from last week. According to, California has the highest average price for Regular at $3.25 and Oklahoma has the cheapest at $1.86. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 50.51, a 4.1% increase from this time last week.

US/China Trade Conflict Creates Factor Opportunities

Low Volatility and Quality offer potential benefits in stressed markets.

Gold and Commodities Set to Soar in 2019

Goldman Sachs is bullish on commodities and gold, recommending an overweight position for both. The investment bank also raised its 12-month price forecast for gold up to $1,425 an ounce, a level last seen in August 2013.

S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 3.57% YTD, Still In Correction Territory

The S&P 500 closed Friday down 0.01% from Thursday and up 2.54% from last Friday. The index is up 3.57% YTD, but still in correction territory.

Making Sense of the Markets and Shutdown Shock

Markets struggle to price new risks, and the U.S. government shutdown grows in severity.

Treasury Snapshot: 10-Year Yield at 2.71%

Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended January 11, 2019, at 2.71% and the 30-year bond closed at 3.04%.

A Slowdown is in the Bag, but What About a Recession?

There is little doubt that the US economy is in a state of slowdown. The big question, is “How will the economy emerge from this slowdown?” Will it be with renewed growth like 2016? or Does it fall into a full-blown recession a la 2007? The answer to that question is unknowable at this point in the cycle.

Time to Take Off The Blindfold?

The S&P 500 Index is off to its best start in years, but this is on the heels of the worst year for stocks since 2008. The trifecta of crashing oil prices, confusion from the Federal Reserve (Fed), and trade issues with China all pushed equities lower by 14% during the usually bullish fourth quarter last year...

Will the Real Market Please Stand Up

The markets have not been kind to investors lately. There were precious few bright spots in the recent quarter, and it seems there was nowhere to hide, except cash. Our instincts, however, tell us that cash is not a long-term solution.