The Capital Growth Channel

Mid Cap Trends: Volatility and the Year Ahead

Join portfolio managers John Indellicate, CFA, of Scout Investments and Christopher Sassouni, DMD, of Eagle Asset Management, both affiliates of Carillon Tower Advisers, for an in-depth look at the mid-cap asset class. Understand the effect of changing market conditions on mid-caps in 2018, and look ahead to what opportunities 2019 may bring.

  • Overview of mid-cap performance relative to other asset classes
  • Key characteristics of mid-caps that may enhance portfolio diversity when combined with large- and small-cap stocks
  • What is “The Cap Gap” and why does it matter?
  • Sector differences with focus on healthcare, consumer discretionary and consumer staples

Agency MBS: Time to Rethink Prepayments

In our view, a combination of positive macroeconomic factors is likely to keep prepayment speeds higher than the market projects.

Fed Will 'Wait & Watch' Before Raising Interest Rates

Fed Chair Jerome Powell used the “patient” word again last week. He also added new words that the Fed can “wait and watch” before raising rates again. And he added another new word, that whenever interest rate increases resume, they will be “gradual.” The stock markets loved it!

Fourth Quarter 2018 - The Year When Nothing Worked

2018 will be broadly remembered as a year when nothing worked and daily stock market volatility spiked. This contrasted with 2017 where seemingly everything pushed higher, and volatility was low. But in 2018, nearly every single asset class and all but one major stock market index (Brazil) around the globe posted negative returns.

How the Mighty Have Fallen

Although the FAANGs were the poster children of the fourth-quarter market rout, losses were broad-based across sectors and countries. These losses were strong reminders of how important it is to pay attention to a company’s stock price in addition to focusing on its fundamentals and long-term growth prospects.

Is Good News Bad or Good?

With unemployment below 4% (considered full employment by the Fed) and wage inflation pressure still positive, the Fed will want to continue to remove the stimulus from its policy. This means continuing to hike interest rates, albeit it at a reduced pace from the last two years.

International and Global Markets Commentary and Investment Outlook

Business uncertainty resulting from trade frictions will continue to put downward pressure on economic growth. As a result, investor confidence may remain fragile (recent price declines appear to reflect this). Concerns are unlikely to dissipate soon, but we contend that international growth stocks represent a good investment opportunity.

7-Year Asset Class Forecasts Increase After Steep Market Declines

Steep declines across most asset classes in the second half of 2018 resulted in significant increases in forward-looking returns.

Dr. Jekyll Economy Meets Mr. Hyde Markets

In the famous book, Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde were one human being with a split personality. Dr. Jekyll healed people and Mr. Hyde murdered them. This economic environment and the U.S. stock market have the same kind of split personality.

What’s Next for the Dollar, Gold, Stocks & Bonds?

The quip, “if you aren’t confused, you aren’t paying attention” needs to be replaced: “with the Fed confused, you better pay attention.” You may want to buckle up. Let me explain.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Corporate Earnings Results Change the Message of the Markets?

It is a light economic calendar without any of the most important reports. The government shutdown will command increasing attention as long as it continues. Finally, there is some real competition in financial news – the start of earnings season.

3 Ways to Protect Clients' Investments This Year

Stock market participants for most of the past few years have eschewed protection. It was all about making large amount of gains. Almost every advisor lost clients from “cocktail party” conversations about who had made the most money recently.

Steering Equity Portfolios Through Stormy Style Seas

As volatility returned to global markets in 2018, return patterns for equity styles were very unstable. With more signs of turbulence ahead, investors should prepare to reduce the impact of short-term factor swings on portfolio performance.

Emerging Markets Outpace Developed Markets in the Final Quarter of 2018

Numerous uncertainties weighed on investor sentiment in 2018 and led to a down year for emerging markets overall, although the fourth quarter saw some outperformance versus developed markets.

The Endless Debt Fret

For the more than three decades we have been involved in analysis of the economy, one nagging constant has been pessimistic prognostications over the U.S. debt. Now once again, debt is the news de jour. Consumer, business, and government debt are all at record highs, and, therefore, the theory goes, the economy is tempting fate.