Don’t Give Up on Bank Stocks Just Yet
US bank shares are in a bear market. The KBW Bank Index fell 20% in 2018. That’s much worse than the overall stock market, which fell 6% in the same period. Ten years after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, many investors are worried that this economic upturn can’t last much longer. Anxiety about the risk of a recession is high.
Q418 Market Review: A Brand New Day
The return of volatility in the fourth quarter should not be overlooked. The landscape has changed which will create opportunities for alert investors and downside risk for others.
Price for Clarity
The market hates ambiguity. That’s what we’re told, and on any short-term basis, we can see the market vote accordingly. In a world where investing has morphed towards algorithmic trading systems influencing daily volatility, many have come to accept this as a reasonable truth and participate by selling when things lose clarity or piling in when visibility is perceived.
Liquidity: Factor investing's hidden gem
The liquidity factor is a hidden gem waiting to be mined. Target its precious premium.
Is the Fed Done Hiking Rates? Watch the Price of Gold
One of the possible implications of a less aggressive Fed in 2019 is a weaker dollar. And once the dollar starts to lose ground relative to other world currencies, the price of gold could rocket up to as much as $1,500 in the blink of an eye.
A Perspective on Secular Bull and Bear Markets
Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? At this point, nine plus years later, the S&P 500 has set a series of inflation-adjusted record highs based on monthly averages of daily closes.
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: Clues from the Past
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. In a "normal" market environment -- one with conventional business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates and inflation -- current valuation levels would be a serious concern.
But these are different times.
‘Tis the Season for Diversification
Equity markets send a timely reminder about diversifying into alternatives.
Revisit My 5 Most Popular Posts of 2018
Looking back over the past 12 months, I’m not surprised to see that my five most popular and widely shared posts of 2018 involve gold (with one exception). With many stocks falling into correction territory or worse, the yellow metal emerged as a standout asset in the fourth quarter on safe haven demand.
Crestmont Market Valuation Update: December 2018
Quick take: Based on the December S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 107% above its arithmetic mean and at the 98th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.
Gold Is Beating the Market for the Month, Quarter, Year and Century
With only one trading day left in 2018, the price of gold has so far beaten the S&P 500 Index for the month of December, the fourth quarter and the year. What might surprise some readers is that it’s also outperformed the market for the century.
Three Ways to Maximize Clients’ Charitable Impact – a Conversation with Jeff Raikes
As 2018 comes to a close, it is a great time to discuss clients’ charitable giving strategies for next year and beyond.
This Will Be the Last Letter Until Next Year
Watch out indeed, for 2017’s December low was violated in February 2018 and the rest, as they say, is history. Accordingly, it will be interesting to see what the December Low Indicator says in 2019.
What if Theranos Was a Hedge Fund?
What if Theranos, the company whose fraudulent activities were exposed in 2015, had been a hedge fund instead of a healthcare company? The comparison shows why investment “science” is not science.