The Alternative Investments Channel

TEST - Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: Clues from the Past

Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. In a "normal" market environment -- one with conventional business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates and inflation -- current valuation levels would be a serious concern.

But these are different times.

Questions I'd be Asking If I Owned Tesla Stock

If I were long in Tesla’s shares I’d be asking certain questions. After all, you’re paying $50 billion for a company that trades completely on the spoils of future dreams.

Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: Clues from the Past

Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. In a "normal" market environment -- one with conventional business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates and inflation -- current valuation levels would be a serious concern.

But these are different times.

The Danger in Private Real Estate Investments

A question I’m often asked involves the merits of investing in private real estate as an alternative to publicly available REITs. To answer that question, I will turn to the historical evidence.

Crestmont Market Valuation Update: July

Quick take: Based on the July S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 130% above its arithmetic mean and at the 99th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.

A Summer Summary of Swell Stuff

Kick back, grab a cool beverage and read on about how to strengthen your online privacy (compliments of GDPR); a Plutus Award financial publisher honor you may want to aim for; and a handy robo-advisor resource.

A Perspective on Secular Bull and Bear Markets

Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? At this point, nine years later, the S&P 500 has set a series of inflation-adjusted record highs based on monthly averages of daily closes. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance. An obvious feature of this inflation-adjusted series is the pattern of long-term alternations between up-and down-trends.

Endgame Strategizing

Last week I gave you some rules to follow with your investments. They were necessarily general because I’m writing to a broad audience. Today, I will get more specific by discussing some possible strategies for high-net-worth “accredited investors.”

Margin Debt and the Market

FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through June. The latest debt level is down 3.3% month-over-month. The June data gives us an additional sense of recent investor behavior.

An Open Letter to European CEOs: Work with Us, Not Against Us

This letter has been a long time coming. It’s time for us to talk. Buyout funds are at your doorstep.

Staying Focused in the Age of “The Donald”

Geopolitics dominates the news these days, over-shadowing what remains a fundamentally solid global economy. As always, Donald Trump is at the center of most of the “noise”...

Master Limited Partnerships

Readers of these missives know that we have been favorable on the midstream Master Limited Partnership (MLP) space for a number of months. The reasons for that strategy have often been mentioned in these letters. First, the midstream MLPs sold off when the upstream MLPs blew up with most of them going bankrupt.

How to Attract Highly Affluent Clients

Let’s investigate the market for individuals with $25 million or more to invest, discover their wants and needs, and look at ways that a firm can prepare to meet those needs.

The Suit Advisors Should Wear: The Importance of Color

The colors you wear play a significant role in the impression people receive. You must use this to your advantage. The suits you wear on first, second and subsequent meetings should be strategic in your consulting and sales process.

How to Dodge the Debt Train

An active manager worth his or her salt will manage risk as part of the deal, and risk management is exactly what you need when you live on a railroad track. It doesn’t have to be perfect, just good enough to mitigate the major drawdowns. If everybody else loses 40% and you only lose 25%, you’ll be way ahead of the crowd. And the right manager should avoid even that scenario and keep you near break-even.