The Active Management Channel

Fourth Quarter 2018 - The Year When Nothing Worked

2018 will be broadly remembered as a year when nothing worked and daily stock market volatility spiked. This contrasted with 2017 where seemingly everything pushed higher, and volatility was low. But in 2018, nearly every single asset class and all but one major stock market index (Brazil) around the globe posted negative returns.

International and Global Markets Commentary and Investment Outlook

Business uncertainty resulting from trade frictions will continue to put downward pressure on economic growth. As a result, investor confidence may remain fragile (recent price declines appear to reflect this). Concerns are unlikely to dissipate soon, but we contend that international growth stocks represent a good investment opportunity.

Dr. Jekyll Economy Meets Mr. Hyde Markets

In the famous book, Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde were one human being with a split personality. Dr. Jekyll healed people and Mr. Hyde murdered them. This economic environment and the U.S. stock market have the same kind of split personality.

What’s Next for the Dollar, Gold, Stocks & Bonds?

The quip, “if you aren’t confused, you aren’t paying attention” needs to be replaced: “with the Fed confused, you better pay attention.” You may want to buckle up. Let me explain.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Corporate Earnings Results Change the Message of the Markets?

It is a light economic calendar without any of the most important reports. The government shutdown will command increasing attention as long as it continues. Finally, there is some real competition in financial news – the start of earnings season.

3 Ways to Protect Clients' Investments This Year

Stock market participants for most of the past few years have eschewed protection. It was all about making large amount of gains. Almost every advisor lost clients from “cocktail party” conversations about who had made the most money recently.

Emerging Markets Outpace Developed Markets in the Final Quarter of 2018

Numerous uncertainties weighed on investor sentiment in 2018 and led to a down year for emerging markets overall, although the fourth quarter saw some outperformance versus developed markets.

Low Volatility is the equity factor winner for 2018

In the fourth quarter, Dividend Yield was also a strong competitor.

World Markets Update

One of eight indexes on our world watch list posted a loss in the first week of 2019. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a 4.65% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 2.89%. In third is Shanghai's SSE with a gain of 2.86%. Coming in last is India's BSE SENSEX with a minor loss of 0.11%.

 

Every Rose Has its Thorn: Healthy Rally, but Risks Linger

At a recent client event I was asked about our ongoing view that volatility would remain elevated—specifically, whether the rally off the December 2018 low in U.S. stocks was an indication that our view might be wrong.

Gold and Commodities Set to Soar in 2019

Goldman Sachs is bullish on commodities and gold, recommending an overweight position for both. The investment bank also raised its 12-month price forecast for gold up to $1,425 an ounce, a level last seen in August 2013.

Crisis and Opportunity in Emerging Debt

Periodic bouts of volatility are a fact of life for emerging market investors, but for those who can ride out such periods of real or perceived crisis, dollar-denominated EM sovereign debt can offer compelling returns.

Fixed-Income Outlook: Three Themes We’re Watching in 2019

The past year was a rough ride for bond investors. Will 2019 deliver more of the same?

Investing in Decisions

Richard Thaler and Emmanuel Roman discuss behavioral science and investing.

2019 Outlook - Party On or Party Over?

Free from a house view on economies, markets or stocks, J O Hambro CapitalManagement’s (JOHCM) fund managers invariably see the world in different ways. We asked a number of our managers for their thoughts on the outlook for their asset class next year, what they would like to see and the possible surprises that 2019 could bring.